Pattern literacy
A pattern needs a denominator
Hits without misses are a kind of lying. Not a moral one. An attentional one.
01 · Hit
What matched?
02 · Miss
What did not?
Four hits. Four misses. Both belong in the picture.
03 · Field
Out of how many opportunities could this have happened?
The hit is small. The field is large.
04 · Base rate
How common is this kind of event anyway?
Related to the field. Not identical.
05 · Selection
Why did this particular match enter attention, or the archive?
06 · Context
What were you already looking for, expecting, fearing, or hoping?
07 · Source
What is actually documented, and when was it recorded?
08 · Meaning
Why did this matter?
A pattern may matter before we know what caused it.
09 · Claim
What are you saying follows from it?
Before you call it a hit
Ambiguous
Was it specific enough to judge? A vague prediction, a partial overlap, an unclear record should not be retrofitted into hit or miss.
Timing
Was the record made before the result was known, or reconstructed afterward?
Independence
Are these genuinely separate occurrences, or versions of the same event?
Notes
- Frederick Mosteller, “Understanding the Birthday Problem,” The Mathematics Teacher 55, no. 5 (1962): 322–25.
A miss is better than a beautiful falsehood.
